Euro Weeks
Presented by Goldman Sachs By ANDREW MCDONALD with MEGAN MCELROY Good Tuesday morning . This is Andrew McDonald. DRIVING THE DAY ALMOST THERE: As you read this, early-rising officials sworn to secrecy will be handling the many pages of John Healey’s budget in full — after it was printed last night.
The chancellor has already posed for those traditional grinning photo-ops with his handiwork and trusty brown sauce. All that’s left to do is ... go for a run, apparently. The last lap: Healey will join the BBC’s Adam Fleming in a London park this morning for a jog, as the Beeb correspondent rounds off his 500 kilometers in 100 days of Andy Burnham mission .
Fleming will interview the chancellor on the run with the content playing out on the BBC later in the day. Best of luck getting in those questions about complex fiscal policy while gasping for breath. What Healey wants to talk about: More “everyday fixes,” with five pre-announced today as part of the last push by the Treasury comms grid.
It’s more of what Kemi Badenoch has derided as “tiny bits of micro-policy” ... but the government is more than happy to keep talking about these low-cost, “aye sounds good” types of policies, given the widespread expectation the budget will lack anything more spellbinding. **A message from Goldman Sachs: From global GDP growth to inflation, interest rates, and more, macroeconomic factors are poised to drive market moves through the end of the year. Discover in-depth coverage and navigate the complex global landscape with analysis on the most pressing macro themes. Explore insights on the macroeconomic landscape from Goldman Sachs. ** Those five policies: Removing import tariffs on more than 100 products ... making permanent tax-free mileage rates ... extending parental pay to 150,000 who were missing out before ... rolling out more Post Office drop-off boxes ... and a new digital taper system to stop carers losing the entire benefit when they earn over the limit.
That last one splashes the Guardian, which investigated the huge debts carers ran up after overstepping their weekly earnings threshold by a matter of pennies. Marmalade tomorrow: Probably the most eye-catching is the removal of more import tariffs on food and drink products — if only for the fact it means a chancellor talking up cheaper gherkins, baked beans and marmalade at the despatch box. The Treasury says that this, alongside a previous tariff-cutting package, will reduce the cost of a weekly shop for those who enjoy said products (by up to £21 a year).
The industry doesn’t like it, with the Food and Drink Federation warning that removing tariffs will “have a limited impact on prices, while hitting British businesses and jobs.” And then there’s ... the final wave of tales emerging in the papers about what will be in Healey’s red box tomorrow. The Sun’s Jack Elsom — and the BBC and your author hear similar — has the annual honor of reporting that fuel duty will be frozen again in the budget. That’s the 16th year in a row.
The Times’ Steven Swinford and Patrick Maguire report that Healey will increase the minimum wage by 3.9 percent ... but there’s a catch. Younger readers, look away now: The paper reports that Healey will opt not to repeat the rises of the last two budgets of the national minimum wage, which applies to those aged 18 to 21. This increased by 26 percent between 2025 and 2026 in an effort to get it closer to the national living wage for older workers — but this time the NMW and the national living wage will both rise by broadly the same rate.
That will keep younger workers earning less than their older peers in the same jobs. Reminder: The minimum wage rose to such an extent in the last two budgets thanks to Labour’s manifesto promise that all adults would be entitled to the same minimum wage. It said age bands were “discriminatory.” But but but: Firms and business groups — which made a big stink about the minimum wage when it was first brought in too, remember — have been warning the big rises for younger workers made them less attractive hires, and therefore increased the NEETs problem.
Healey himself alluded to the “trade-off” between the level of minimum wage and the employment rate last week . Plus: We’re getting the last contributions from the opposition parties before they have to respond to the actual thing. It’s Lib Dem leader Ed Davey’s turn today, with a visit to an MOT garage in Hampshire to warn economic growth is “stuck in the slow lane” (geddit?).
He’ll record a pool clip around 11 a.m. OTHERWISE: We’re in waiting mode for the big moment tomorrow. One thing to watch on Wednesday ... is whether Healey names the date of the spending review, which is looking like a much more consequential and painful moment for the government.
Maguire at the Times has some intel from last week’s Cabinet meeting , revealing Healey said the war in Iran was “hammering” global trade and just about everything else economic. The chancellor warned his comrades again that they’ll have to find more cuts in their departments. Some of that scary context: Analysis by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, featured in the FT , shows that if energy prices remain in line with the Bank of England’s “adverse” scenario for costs from July, incomes after housing costs will be as much as £770 a year lower by 2029-30 compared with last year. £21 a year off the weekly shop doesn’t start to sound like very much when you look at those numbers.
These things take time: Another old Starmer ally has emerged to write for the first time in their own voice ahead of the budget. Stuart Ingham, director of the policy unit in Starmer’s No. 10, writes in today’s Telegraph (piece not yet online as Playbook went to pixel) that the “relentless drumbeat of small pro-consumer measures” will earn Burnham credit but that they must sit “beneath a larger strategy to bring down the bigger bills, such as mortgages, that really hit living standards.” He calls for supply-side reforms ... specifically name-checking three that divide his party: welfare reform, airport expansion and curbs on judicial review. The other things we’re waiting for: Officials are also drawing up a “rewiring the state” white paper.
Ministers originally said it would come in “autumn, alongside the budget” — but my colleague Dan Bloom now hears it’s due in December alongside Burnham’s 10-year plan. Two people with knowledge of the white paper insist it was always going to come later than the budget, since parts of it depend on the Milburn review. The next stage of that review, incidentally, is expected at some point in mid-November.
And then there’s defense spending ... and as my colleague Mason Boycott-Owen covers here, there are a stack of questions the industry is waiting to see answered on Wednesday and beyond. One thing we aren’t waiting for: Any Cabinet meeting today. It’s been shifted to tomorrow for the pre-budget banging of the table.
MEANWHILE, IN BREXIT STOP ME IF YOU THINK YOU’VE HEARD THIS ONE BEFORE: Labour and Westminster are still arguing about Brexit, thanks to Andy Burnham’s out-loud musings on freedom of movement, a potential second referendum and his hopes to rejoin the bloc in his lifetime. Musings which were ...“clarified” by Burnham’s spokesperson in Monday’s daily back-and-forth with hacks about the meaning of words that come out of the prime minister’s mouth. The Mail splash calls it a “foot in mouth Brexit blunder” and has a timeline of various occasions the PM’s team has stepped in on clean up duty .
Happy 100 days in office, PM. He has an op-ed about that milestone in today’s Mirror (not yet online.) Either way: The Brexit wars are well and truly back, and already splitting Labour. In the red wall corner: In an op-ed dropping on Politics.co.uk this morning, Grimsby MP Melanie Onn goes for the jugular by warning the PM he can’t offer hope if there isn’t “trust.” That trust, she writes, was won by Labour’s 2024 manifesto promise not to return to freedom of movement.
“Reopening freedom of movement risks reigniting divisions when the country desperately needs a more constructive conversation,” she writes. That’s just one example — the i Paper’s Adam Forrest has more on- and off-the-record bits from MPs here . On that note: Nigel Farage, armed with a three-page document about the apparent £33 billion cost of returning to free movement, is doing his first (mini-) morning broadcast round since the summer — including the Today program at 7.30 a.m.
“Freedom of movement has got him going!” a Reform aide texts in. Labour’s strategists will have to grapple with the fact that reopening the debate means more Farage. In the blue (with yellow stars) corner: Labour’s legions of Rejoin dreamers, all ready to duke it out — plus those representing Leave areas who argue things have moved on from 2016.
Labour Mayor Oliver Coppard — who represents South Yorkshire, heavily pro-Brexit in the referendum — tells Playbook that “far from being a difficult conversation I think it’s one people here are pleased to see a politician take on. How we reverse the worst excesses of Brexit is definitely not the toxic political question some people seem to assume.” Time will tell. Sitting privately in those corners and somewhere in between ... is the Cabinet.
The i Paper’s Caroline Wheeler and Will Hazell have two sources claiming Shabana Mahmood isn’t happy about the freedom of movement intervention. And others, including Jonathan Reynolds and Lisa Nandy , have publicly indicated they aren’t keen on a big Rejoin push. Brace for weeks of stories about Cabinet divisions over Europe as we gear up for the Nov. 20 summit in Brussels.
Happily: Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds — who told POLITICO on this day one month ago that “constitutional questions” about Britain’s EU relationship are causing “uncertainty” for business” — is doing a full morning round of interviews for the government this morning. Good luck, have fun. TODAY IN WESTMINSTER RESILIENCE OF THE NATION NEWS: Security Minister Dan Jarvis is expected to address the Commons this afternoon on the government’s “Be Ready” campaign — the one highlighting what households should do so they’re ready for war/state failure.
It’s not a new announcement, more along the lines of setting out the existing guidance ... and then taking questions from MPs on it all. Not so full of beans: Brits have been heeding the government’s advice so hard that baked beans and bottled water have been selling out at supermarkets, the Times’ retail editor Isabella Fish writes . It appears to just be at Ocado, so far. 6000 PREVENT REFERRALS: A record 6,085 under-18s were referred to the anti-extremism Prevent scheme last year, an FOI from the Conservatives reveals.
The Mail’s David Barrett writes it up here . INCOMING: Addressing the PLP last night, Education Secretary Lucy Powell told Labour MPs the “next few months are significant” on the education debate ... as the government prepares an attempt to legislate on its SEND reforms. She urged the troops to run into the debate with confidence.
Though ... not many MPs were present. She opened with a joke thanking the “quality crowd” for making it there, despite the storm and one-line whip. SW1 EVENTS: The Foreign Press Association hosts Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s widow Yulia Navalnaya and launches the Authoritarian Collaboration Index (11 a.m.) ...
Chatham House hosts a panel on the U.K. and EU’s response to China (6 p.m.). REPORTS OUT TODAY: The Charity Commission’s decision to take legal action against the Parliamentary and Health Service Ombudsman was wrong and there are lessons that must be learned, according to the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee . HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with Foreign, Commonwealth and Development questions ...
Labour MP James Naish ’s 10-minute rule bill on developers and infrastructure ... the second reading of the Building Safety (Remediation of Unsafe Cladding etc.) Bill ... and Labour MP Josh Newbury has the adjournment debate on children’s care services. WESTMINSTER HALL: Debates from 9.30 a.m. on topics including cask ale (Labour MP Jacob Collier ) ... SEND provisions in rural communities (Labour MP Terry Jermy ) ... council housing (Labour MP Chris Hinchliff ) ... farming (DUP MP Carla Lockhart ) ... and Covid-19 (Conservative MP Christopher Chope ).
On Committee corridor: Charities give evidence on supporting young people with their mental health (10 a.m.) ... Farming and Fishing Minister Stephen Morgan is quizzed on the sectors (10 a.m.) ... fire bosses are questioned on their preparedness (10 a.m.) ... Institute for Government representatives give evidence on “mission-led government” (10 a.m.) ... international experts discuss climate change and national security ahead of COP31 (10.15 a.m.) ... expert witnesses share their thoughts on scaling up medical services in the event of major conflict (10.30 a.m.) ...
Domestic Abuse Commissioner Nicole Jacobs and Anti-Slavery Commissioner Eleanor Lyons share their perspective on the Violence Against Women and Girls Strategy (2 p.m.). HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with the introduction of the Bishop of Bath and Wells Michael Beasley ... questions on topics including the liaison service, the International Criminal Court, devolution and Meta ... the third reading of the Armed Forces Bill ... and the second reading of the Courts and Tribunals Bill. **Beyond the Budget headlines: What comes next for U.K. policy? From financial regulation and energy investment to technology and trade, join POLITICO Pro's journalists this Thursday for four expert briefings exploring the key announcements and wider policy implications.
Register ** BEYOND THE M25 NO POWER TO THE PEOPLE: About 22,000 properties are without power across the country after Storms Austen and Boelo, according to the Energy Networks Association. Scotland, northern England and parts of the south-east are worst-affected. Various networks are aiming to have power restored by this evening at the latest .
ENTRY DENIED: SNP MP Lara Bird claimed she was detained by Israeli authorities while trying to enter the West Bank as part of an international delegation. Posting on X , she said she was detained for eight hours and prevented from crossing the border. The delegation included Scottish Green MSP Kate Nevens and Labour MP Clive Lewis.
The Times has a write-up . AROUND THE WORLD ISRAEL DECIDES: The polls have opened in Israel, where voters will cast their ballots in the country’s first general election since the October 7 attacks and resulting conflict. Recent polls have the governing coalition and main opposition bloc almost neck-and-neck, meaning neither is on course to secure a parliamentary majority.
The main contenders: Incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, is seeking another term with the backing of Donald Trump. His main challenger is former military chief and war cabinet member Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the centrist Yashar party. Numbers game: Israel uses nationwide proportional representation, which usually means parties have to forge a governing coalition.
Israel’s President Isaac Herzog will meet elected representatives within seven days of the official result being announced, which is expected by Nov. 4. The leader seen as best-placed will be asked to form a government and will have 28 days to negotiate with other factions. Long road ahead: It usually takes between 20 and 100 days to form a government, according to the Israel Democracy Institute .
The BBC reports nearly 70,000 Israelis have flown home from abroad specifically to vote. In the meantime : Polls will close at 8 p.m. U.K. time tonight, and Israeli TV networks are expected to publish exit polls projecting the result.
We’ll get some results overnight into Wednesday. BRAZILIAN BEEF: Donald Trump has described Brazil’s election as “rigged” after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was re-elected for a fourth term. Lula won 51.8 percent of the vote compared with Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48.2 percent. **A message from Goldman Sachs: Geopolitics and trade continue to shape activity across global sectors and asset classes.
With shifting geopolitical landscapes and market volatility top-of-mind, keeping informed about emerging macroeconomic trends will become even more critical. Dive into our insights for timely analysis on the most pressing issues, from GDP growth and inflation to employment and consumer spending. For forecasts and analysis from our economists, bankers, traders, and investors, discover our macroeconomic insights for the deepest coverage on the topics shaping the complex global economy.
Explore macroeconomic insights from Goldman Sachs. ** MEDIA ROUND Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) ... Sky Mornings (7.15 a.m.) ... BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) ...
LBC (7.50 a.m.) ... Today (8.10 a.m.) ... Good Morning Britain (8.35 a.m.) ...
GB News (8.45 a.m.). Shadow Housing Secretary Katie Lam broadcast round: Times Radio (7.45 a.m.) ... Talk (8.05 a.m.) ...
LBC News (8.45 a.m.) ... GB News (9 a.m.) ... Sky Mornings (9.15 a.m.).
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage broadcast round: BBC Breakfast (7.15 a.m.) ... Today (7.30 a.m.) ... GB News (8 a.m.).
Also on Good Morning Britain: Former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt (7.20 a.m.) ... Labour MP Jen Craft (8.15 a.m.). Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Former Israeli Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Sharren Haskel (8.40 a.m.).
On Politics Live (BBC Two, 12.15 p.m.): Labour MP David Pinto-Duschinsky ... Conservative MP Bernard Jenkin ... PoliticsJOE’s Ava-Santina Evans .
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES POLITICO UK : 7 big questions as Britain hikes defense spending. Daily Express : ‘We need £200 million a year to fix end of life care.’ Daily Mail : PM’s new foot in mouth Brexit blunder. Daily Mirror : It’s time to pay fair.
Daily Star : Liz leafs out of her book. Financial Times : Anthropic sets IPO stage with giant filing on goals and risks. Metro : Tequila slammer.
The Daily Telegraph : Labour ‘falsified’ defence spending. The Guardian : ‘Cliff edge’ rule to be scrapped in wake of carer’s allowance scandal. The Independent : Burnham blames Brexit for small boats crisis.
The i Paper : Cabinet anger after Burnham opens door to EU free movement. The Times : Chancellor will boost minimum wage by 4%. The Sun : Jesy’s jungle U-turn for sick twins.
LONDON CALLING WESTMINSTER WEATHER: A rainy start with a chance of sunny spells in the afternoon, and a high of 16C and low of 8C. IF YOU’RE BORED WAITING FOR THE BUDGET: Play this deeply weird but also quite addicting game created by the Tories. It ends in a boss battle between Kemi Badenoch and an Andy Burnham figure yelling “public control” while he chucks flaming pound signs at the Tory boss.
SPOTTED ... at the anniversary event for the Mishal Husain Show on Bloomberg: former MI6 chief Richard Moore ... former FT editor Lionel Barber ... BBC Today presenter Nick Robinson ... podcaster Jon Sopel ... author Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and her husband Richard Ratcliffe ... playwright James Graham ... historian Peter Frankopan ... the BBC’s Nuala McGovern and Rebecca Keating ... TV exec David Brindley ... and Bloomberg’s John Micklethwait , Victoria Wakely , David Merritt and Louisa Lewis.
JOB ADS: AI Minister Kanishka Narayan is looking for a caseworker (maternity cover). TUESDAY’S POD PICK: Peer Terry Burns , who worked on 20 budgets for six chancellors, joins Conservative MP David Davis and former No. 10 comms director Guto Harri on Politics Unleashed to talk about the big day and what really happens inside the Treasury. WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.
WRITING PLAYBOOK WEDNESDAY MORNING: Andrew McDonald. BIRTHDAYS: Barking MP Nesil Caliskan ... North West Hampshire MP Kit Malthouse ...
Sefton Central MP Bill Esterson ... Tory peer Simon Wolfson ... Labour peer Frederick Ponsonby ...
Lib Dem Comms Officer Will Terras ... The Economist’s Tom Nuttall ... POLITICO’s Mizy Clifton.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Matt Honeycombe-Foster , James Panichi and Dan Bloom , reporter Megan McElroy and producers Dean Southwell and Hugh Kapernaros . SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | Brussels Playbook Capitals | London Playbook | London Playbook PM | Playbook Paris | Berlin Playbook | Madrid Playbook | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | London Influence | D.C. Playbook | D.C.
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Source: politico.eu
